No Recession yet, but Risks Are Rising. Are You Prepared?

In this paper, Jamie Newton, CFA, and Head of Global Fixed Income Research, discusses why we have not yet seen a recession, why one is likely coming, and how investors can best prepare for it in the months ahead.

Part of a yellow bridge zoomed in, creating geometric shapes against a blue sky.


8 min read


Market Events

Key takeaways

  • Years of accumulation of low-coupon debt, residual COVID stimulus, and the work-from-home movement have kept economic growth positive in spite of higher rates.
  • However, there are a number of indicators that suggest the economy will likely succumb to recession later in 2023 or in early 2024.
  • Investors can prepare by extending the duration of their fixed income portfolios in the next several months, staying diversified, and maintaining a bias toward quality.