Allview: Market Risk Monitor

Key takeaways

• We’ve elevated the Iran conflict risk to #1 this month. The probability of a sustained conflict lasting weeks or months remains very high. As we’ve stated before, energy price volatility is the primary investment risk for portfolios. We are closely monitoring developments across the region and remain deeply mindful of the impact these events have on residents of all affected countries.
• Two secondary effects of higher energy prices include the potential for additional defaults in the non traditional lender space as inflation fears reignite (risk #5), and the possibility of bond vigilantes returning to fixed income markets in force (risk #6).
• Lastly, the U.S. Supreme Court ruling against the Trump Administration’s 2025 tariffs likely reduces some of the tariff related inflationary risks (risk #8) in the U.S. economy.